Catherine Bashiama runs her fingers along the branches of the coffee tree she’s raised from a seedling, searching anxiously for its first fruit buds since she planted it three years ago.

Drought hit coffee farmers in Brazil hard last year, drying up trees and driving global prices to record highs. But Rodrigo Brondani is expecting a bumper harvest.

When it comes to coffee beans, what happens in Brazil doesn’t stay in Brazil. In July and August, a bad frost hit the country's coffee-producing region and analysts say Brazil’s bean shortage ...