Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates.

Community Engagement and Analysis works to understand the economic experiences of lower-income households and communities to help build a stronger economy for all Americans. ENGAGE: We engage our ...

Simulations using a Phillips curve-type relationship provide insights into the importance of demand versus supply for ...

Download PDF (pdf, 1.0 mb) Download Chart Data (Excel document, 130 kb) Summary The 2019 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (Diary) highlights findings from the fifth Diary study conducted by the ...

The results suggest that future changes in climate will increase exposure to extreme heat for outdoor workers in the United States. The number of days above 25°C for these workers rises substantially ...

Download PDF (pdf, 480 kb) Download Chart Data (Excel document, 128 kb) Summary The Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (Diary) is an ongoing annual research effort conducted by the Federal Reserve to ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

The extent to which either supply or demand factors drive inflation has important implications for economic policy. I propose a framework to decompose inflation into supply- and demand-driven ...

President Daly joined co-anchors Morgan Brennan and Jon Fortt and senior economics reporter Steve Liesman on Closing Bell: ...

To help sort out the direction of causation between stock returns and sentiment, it’s useful to plot the current month’s value of one variable against the next month’s value of the other variable.

The overall pattern masks substantial variation across our four racial and ethnic groups. Figure 2 shows that the college wage premium is especially large for Asian workers, with college graduates ...

Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises ...