Stocks fell on Thursday, further dampening investor hopes for a Santa Claus rally this year. Historically, a weak beginning to the year hasn't been a good sign for stocks.

The odds of a rising stock market are not significantly different whether or not there is a Santa Claus rally. The absence of a “Santa Claus rally” does not doom the U.S. stock market in 2025. That period from Christmas through the second trading day of January marks the traditional definition of the Santa Claus rally.

Traders had hoped a banner year for the S&P 500 would end in a "Santa Claus Rally"—a run-up commonly seen over the last five trading days of a year and the first two of the next. While Thursday and Friday trading could bring a turnaround,