Nate Silver – FiveThirtyEight
Apr 21, 2023 · Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t.”
President: general election Polls | FiveThirtyEight
2 days ago · An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology.
Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine ...
Nov 3, 2020 · Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. @natesilver538
How FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Forecasts Did And What We’ll Be …
Jun 8, 2021 · We got 41 percent of our toss-up calls right, along with 77 percent of our “lean” calls, 95 percent of our “likely” calls, and 100 percent (399 of 399) of our “solid” calls. Also ...
About Us - FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.
National Polls - FiveThirtyEight
4 days ago · Poll type. An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
The 3 Big Questions I Still Have About Election Day
Nov 7, 2022 · Those numbers have been relatively steady for the past few days. So let’s instead ask three big forecasting questions about the race. These aren’t questions like “how much will abortion ...
2016 Election Forecast - FiveThirtyEight
Nov 8, 2016 · Nate Silver's predictions and polling data for the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump
U.S. Senate Polls | FiveThirtyEight
4 days ago · Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.”. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.
2020 Election Forecast - FiveThirtyEight
Nov 3, 2020 · Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight